If & When the AI Bubble Bursts

Staying on mission by applying time-proven wisdom

I’ve lived through a tech gold-rush before.

When the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, I wasn’t watching from the sidelines.

Hype gave way to heartbreak. But I also saw something else: innovation didn’t die. It just got serious and focused.

That’s why when I see headlines calling AI “the biggest and most dangerous bubble the world has ever seen”, 17x bigger than dot-com, 4x bigger than the 2008 housing crash, I don’t panic.

And I want nonprofit leaders to do the same.

A UK analyst named Julien Garran is sounding the alarm. According to him, we’re seeing:

• Nearly $1 trillion in market gains for 10 unprofitable AI startups.

•  A “funding treadmill” where most of the ecosystem is hemorrhaging cash (except NVIDIA).

•  No clear “killer app” to justify the spending.

“Overreliance on hype over substance, a lot of tools doing useless jobs,” as he puts it, with no accountability on outcomes.

He believes this bubble won’t just pop, it will unravel. Slowly, painfully. A drawn-out deflation that leaves a trail of broken models, empty wallets, and disillusioned missions.

But let’s say he’s wrong. Let’s say superintelligence does arrive. Then what? Well, in his view, we either land in utopia… or something darker, depending on who controls the system.

So, what does this mean for faith-based nonprofits?

So, what does this mean for the faith-based and nonprofit sector? Here’s where I want to speak plainly.

If you lead a mission-driven organization, the stakes for adopting AI feel high. And they are. But your goal isn’t to win the AI arms race, it’s to discern how this technology can serve your people, your process, and your purpose.

AI isn’t magic. And it isn’t a messiah, it’s a tool.

AI isn’t magic. And it isn’t a messiah, it’s a tool.

Like every other bubble-era breakthrough, the useful stuff will survive. The rest will fade like MySpace, Netscape, and Ask Jeeves.

And here’s the light at the end of the tunnel: if the bubble bursts, what remains will be leaner, more ethical, and more accessible to organizations like yours.

Practical wisdom for now

Let me offer a few principles from someone who’s seen hype cycles come and go:

1. Don’t chase trends—solve real problems. If AI helps you automate intake forms, speed up donor engagement, or create more personalized discipleship content- great. But if it’s just a shiny object, skip it.
2. Build AI capacity like you would any other leadership pipeline. Invest in digital upskilling at a pace that matches your people and mission. Not every staffer needs to be a prompt engineer but someone on your team should know how to spot when AI is adding value (or not).
3. Avoid expensive, locked ecosystems. During the dot-com crash, those with flexible systems adapted. Those stuck in high-cost contracts didn’t. Choose open tools, modular systems, and partners who don’t tie your ministry to their burn rate.
4. Document your AI experiments. Whether it’s an LLM-powered donor assistant, auto-generated devotionals, or internal knowledge search, log the results. When the bubble shifts, you’ll be positioned as a thoughtful, trusted leader, not a bandwagon chaser.

What if it all implodes?

Then we reset. Just like the web didn’t die in 2001, AI won’t disappear. It will mature. The crash will clear the clutter and elevate mission-aligned innovation. Ministries that stay grounded will thrive while others reorient.

Ministries that stay grounded will thrive while others reorient.

Remember this: The nonprofit sector didn’t collapse when the internet changed fundraising. It adapted. We didn’t disappear during COVID, we digitized. And we won’t get left behind in AI, either.

Lead with wisdom. Do not worry. So, breathe. You don’t have to bet the farm. But you do need to stay in the conversation. Because once the dust settles, the kingdom still needs builders who know how to wield a hammer and not just chase the wind.

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Stewart Severino is the Head of Innovation for The Navigators a global disciple-making ministry, where he architects cross-functional initiatives to scale both digital and in-person impact. He integrates emerging tools, including AI, to accelerate clarity, alignment, and execution across complex team dynamics. He also advises other mission-driven organizations on growth, marketing, and operational excellence.

Stewart Severino will co-lead a workshop entitled “Stop What’s Broken – Start Building What Matters” and present a FAST TRACK talk on this article’s topic at The Outcomes Conference 2026 in Dallas, Texas (April 28-30). Please join us for this transformational event for Christian nonprofit leaders. Register >>